Solving math problems

Searching around for something that is interesting to write about and for which there even might be an audience, I've decided I am going to do math problems out of my last university math text book, that being the one I used for a Differential Equations course, Advanced Engineering Mathematics, 6th Edition by Erwin Kreyszig.

Section 1.2, Problem 3

Solve

y'=ky.

Rearranging we get:

y'/y=k

Integrating we have:

∫dy/y = ∫kdx

ln y = kx + C

Section 1.2, Problem 4

Solve

y' = sec y

Rearranging we get:

y' cos y = 1

Integrating we have:

sin y = x + C

y = arc sin x + C

Section 1.2, Problem 5

Solve

y' = y cot x

Rearranging we get:

Integrating we have:

ln |y| = ln |sin x| + C

y = C |sin x|

How to deal with existential threats

I have been recently listening to an audiobook version of Steven Pinker's Enlightenment Now.  As a result I have been thinking about what are the real risks of existential threats to humanity as well as the liberal western secular democracies which seem to be at the pinnacle of human achievement currently.  The point of this is to put together some thoughts on what can actually be done to mitigate the risks of existential threats.  First, I want to go through a number of these threats to try and define characteristics of the threats, create some kind of categorization and finally give some thoughts to how to proceed to combat those characteristics.

Conspiracy theories

In looking at ways that humanity could be wiped off the face of the Earth or at least reduced technologically to some primitive hunter-gatherer or simple agricultural state, there are many possible mechanisms that have been proposed to do this.  I will give a brief synopsis of a dozen or so in no particular order

Gray goo

The goo can vary between genetically engineered bacteria to nanobots to even some kind of hypothetical alien being or technology that is introduced via space travel or comet (spaceship?) impact with the Earth.  In any case, there is something that simply converts whatever it touches into goo, removing the life and organization from the matter, destroying everything it comes in contact with.  A nice fictionalized version of this is Vonnegut's Cat's Cradle with the substance Ice Nine.

It came from space

There have been asteroid and comet impacts before and doubtlessly again in the future.  Comet impacts, but also other spatial hazards such as the sun going out, radiation, etc. fall into this category including missiles launched by hypothetical aliens.  Another space type hazard is the scenario where a particle accelerator creates a black hole and it then pulls in the entirety of the planet, the moon and eventually the entire sun.

Conquest

Some external force takes over from humans and in the process makes us go extinct.  Some possible sources are apes, high mortality infectious disease or hypothetical aliens or even zombies.

Changes to the environment

This includes all kinds of changes to the environment so that it is too hot, too cold, too dry, too acidic, too basic, too salty, too much radiation to sustain life anymore.  There are all kinds of reasons why there could be changes, some related to human activity, and others not.

Classification of the threat

I would propose classifying the threats on a few scales.  The first is the speed of arrival.  Since nothing can move faster than the speed of light, that would be the top of the scale.  Some of the astronomical or physics based existential threats do move at the speed of light.  But many threats are slower such as the sun going out.
The second scale would be the extent of human control there is on the threat.  Some threats such as asteroids and comets are outside our control.  Other threats such as nuclear war definitely are.
A third scale would be how between when it starts and annihilation.  For example, a supernova (not that our sun would ever supernova as it is too small) is over very quickly, but infectious disease might take a decade before it manages to kill everyone.
The kinds of existential threats that are easiest to handle are those that are entirely within our control, arrive slowly (can be seen years ahead) and take time to happen (allows for reaction).  We need to try and work towards shifting these scales for all threats in those directions, if possible.  For example, better detection of asteroids and comets, better control of research into new infectious diseases.  Our best tools to do this are evidence based science.

Some humorous headlines

Looking at Google News headlines, I ran across a few that I thought were not quite right.

So this is good news.  It is very annoying when people show fake signs of recovery.  The doctors must be very smart to figure what signs are fake and which ones are real.  But in any case, whether the signs are real or fake, it seems like he is actually recovering.

So this headline conjures up images of The Godfather when the Mafia guys left the dead horses' head in the the rich guy's bed.  Where did the ex-president of Peru get the cadaver?  Does Peru have a Cadavers-R-Us store? Should I interpret that when my wife's cat leaves a mouse or bird cadaver by the back door that it is a sign of 'contempt'?

This is terrible! What kind of person would go and murder someone who as been hit by a truck?!  Now the police have to investigate two crimes, bad driving by a trucker and then a cruel and shameless homicide of some probably defenseless pedestrian lying by the side of the road.  This also makes me wonder, how large is a large truck?  A standard semi trailer is 53' long in Oregon (also this is one of the states that allow the triple-trailer road trains on the road), so was it a truck with an over-size load?  This was a particularly bad headline.

That's all for today, I'll post more some time in the future.

Executive Order 13829: US Postal System

What the Executive Order says

Executive Order (EO) 13829 is entitled "Taskforce on the United States Postal system" and has 7 sections.  It was issued in April 2018.

Section 1

This section sketches out that the US Postal System (USPS) is currently operating under a financing model that is structurally unsustainable and cites certain facts in support of that position.

Section 2

This section defines who will be on the Task Force and that it will be led by the Secretary of the Treasury.

Section 3

This section directs the Task Force to seriously reconsider the traditionally understood mandate of the USPS and how present trends extrapolate into the future such as additional package volume due to e-commerce and similarly, the reduced letter volume due to electronic communications technologies.

Section 4

This section discusses what is to be considered when the Task Force comes up with recommendations.  The recommendations should not increase taxes and needs to consider EO 13781 (which I discuss here) as well as the views of the USPS workforce and customers.

Section 5

This section mandates that a report be generated within 120 days to summarize the findings and recommendations of the Task Force.

Section 6

This section indicates from where the funds to run the task for will come, which is the Federal Financing Bank.

Section 7

This section, labeled "general provisions" includes specific text to ensure that the EO does not exceed the constitutional limits on executive power.

My commentary

So the lapse of time actually very much worked in the favor of being able to capture a more comprehensive consideration of what is going on with this EO.  And there are considerable tides pushing this issue around.  First is that everyone agrees that USPS needs to exist and it needs to provide mail services to everyone.  However, in providing that service, many argue exactly who should be footing the bill or why a post office should exist in every hamlet with a 1,000 people who live thereabouts.  In that respect, this EO certainly is continuing that argument, especially when it asks that "universal service" needs to be redefined.
Second, I do think that it is fair to re-consider the mission of USPS because of the large scale technological changes that have happened over the past 20 years.  But to draw the conclusion that because of these changes, USPS is a relic that is long past its expiration date is wrong.  There is a role to play and USPS could enhance the services that it provides to mail customers through technology and there needs to be an incubator so that new services could be developed.  These services may well compete in the market against services being provided by publicly traded or privately held for-profit corporations.  For some this should not be allowed by their fundamental philosophy.  But my opinion is that if you are wanting to not fund the USPS through tax based subsidies to be able to succeed in the mission to provide universal service, then you have to let it compete in the market.
Given the predispositions of the current administration, it is entirely probable that the report will favor eliminating as much of USPS as possible.  The final report, issued in December 2018 is here.  It is 74 pages long.  There was also an interim report in August of 2018.
The recommendations in the report notably include a lot "keep things the same, but make money instead of losing it".  It is not a great report, but on the other hand, it doesn't significantly push for privatization either.

Executive Order 13828: Reducing Poverty

What the Executive Order says

Executive Order (EO) 13828 is entitled "Reducing Poverty in America by Promoting Opportunity and Economic Mobility" and has 5 sections.  It was issued in April of 2018.

Section 1

This section proposes the argument that many who are on public or government assistance of various kinds have been trapped there and are suffering because the government is giving them assistance to meet basic needs.

Section 2

This section starts by saying that the measure of success of assistance programs is to see how many people are able to find work such that they no longer need or qualify for the aid given by the program.  Fundamentally, the text presupposes and indirectly references that there are some large number of "free riders" that are taking advantage of the government aid who, as a result, are not working because the income/benefits received allow them to have a luxurious and idle life.  Also, "government waste" is also referenced.

Section 3

This section mandates that certain agencies make a review of federal laws and regulations to determine first if additional work requirements can be applied regarding the benefits being provided.  Second, to ensure that programs are not, as much as possible, providing benefits or assistance to illegal aliens.  And there are reports that have to be written and provided to the Director of the OMB.  Note that the President doesn't seem to want to get the reports himself any more.

Section 4

This Section includes definitions for the terms "individuals", "families", "persons", "work", "workforce", "welfare", and "public assistance".

Section 5

This section includes the necessary legal fine print to assure the constitutionality of the EO.

My Commentary

So it has been said many times that the Red rural counties, which are often the poorest parts of the US, is where the current President got a large part of the vote necessary to win the presidency.  So many liberal pundits have seized on the fact that so many executive branch policies and initiatives, not to mention legislation passed by the Republican controlled Congress have usually had depressive effects on the Red rural counties.  Here it seems that the President is finally trying to help the people who elected him by finally getting them off of government assistance so that only those that are worthy will survive by being able to find a way to earn money and those that are not will die of starvation or disease homeless in the streets.
I do agree that there is a need to measure outcomes of programs.  But in doing so, we also have to keep in mind that externalities such as the state of the economy, the prevailing wages and local cost of living do have a significant impact on whether people are able to rise back up so that they no longer need or qualify for the assistance program.  This is especially true of "re-training" programs.

Executive Order 13827: Venezuela

What the Executive Order says

Executive Order (EO) 13827 is entitled "Taking Additional Steps to address the Situation in Venezuela" and it has 7 sections.  It was issued in March 2018.

Section 1

This section prohibits US persons from being involved in transactions or funding of digital currencies by, for or on behalf of the Government of Venezuela.

Section 2

This section prohibits transactions that are structured to try and avoid or circumscribe the rule in section 1.

Section 3

This section provides definitions for the terms "person", "entity", "United States person", and "Government of Venezuela".

Section 4

This section instructs the Secretary of the Treasury to take necessary actions to implement this EO.

Section 5

This section describes the justification why no advance notice on the prohibition is warranted and references EO 13692 which called for blocking the property of certain individuals in Venezuela and was issued under the previous administration in March of 2015.

Section 6

This section is a standard clause to ensure the constitutionality of the EO.

Section 7

This section defines when the EO becomes effective.

My Commentary

The sanctions herein are not really significant by themselves.  But I believe that it was an additional necessary step and a sign of technological change in the world's financial structures.  As time has passed, we have seen that the situation in Venezuela has worsen nearly every single week and that the average Venezuelan is suffering from fighting for power that is going on.

Executive Order 13826: Crime Prevention

What the Executive Order Says

Executive Order (EO) 13826 is entitled "Federal Interagency Council on Crime Prevention and Improving Reentry" and has 7 sections.  It was published in March 2018.

Section 1

This section states that the aim of the policy is to reduce crime and also re-integrate rehabilitated convicts into the community as productive citizens.

Section 2

This section states that the policy is to prevent people from becoming criminals and to lower recidivism rates.  Then it vaguely says that the Federal government has a role to play and that agencies need to coordinate activities to enhance efficiency.

Section 3

This section defines the members of the Federal Interagency Council on Crime Prevention and Improving Reentry.  It tasks the Council with specific actions such as meeting once per quarter.

Section 4

This section mandates that an initial report as well as a final report and status updates on implementation of the accepted recommendations all are written.  There are a number of factors that are to be considered.

Section 5

This section revokes a Presidential Memo dated April 29, 2016.

Section 6

This section states that the Council will be terminated 3 years from the date of the EO.

Section 7

This section includes general provisions which limit the interpretation of the EO to ensure its constitutionality.

My Commentary

So this task force replaces one that the previous administration had set up in April of 2016.  Here is some information regarding that.  There are a few announcements, such as the appointment of the Executive Director, but I cannot find anywhere that a report was issued nor even a website, although it is not clear if the predecessor organization (FIRC) that was the subject of the April, 2016 memo, website was taken over by the organization mentioned in this EO.  It doesn't appear to be.  So overall, it appears that nothing has happened here.