How to deal with existential threats

I have been recently listening to an audiobook version of Steven Pinker's Enlightenment Now.  As a result I have been thinking about what are the real risks of existential threats to humanity as well as the liberal western secular democracies which seem to be at the pinnacle of human achievement currently.  The point of this is to put together some thoughts on what can actually be done to mitigate the risks of existential threats.  First, I want to go through a number of these threats to try and define characteristics of the threats, create some kind of categorization and finally give some thoughts to how to proceed to combat those characteristics.

Conspiracy theories

In looking at ways that humanity could be wiped off the face of the Earth or at least reduced technologically to some primitive hunter-gatherer or simple agricultural state, there are many possible mechanisms that have been proposed to do this.  I will give a brief synopsis of a dozen or so in no particular order

Gray goo

The goo can vary between genetically engineered bacteria to nanobots to even some kind of hypothetical alien being or technology that is introduced via space travel or comet (spaceship?) impact with the Earth.  In any case, there is something that simply converts whatever it touches into goo, removing the life and organization from the matter, destroying everything it comes in contact with.  A nice fictionalized version of this is Vonnegut's Cat's Cradle with the substance Ice Nine.

It came from space

There have been asteroid and comet impacts before and doubtlessly again in the future.  Comet impacts, but also other spatial hazards such as the sun going out, radiation, etc. fall into this category including missiles launched by hypothetical aliens.  Another space type hazard is the scenario where a particle accelerator creates a black hole and it then pulls in the entirety of the planet, the moon and eventually the entire sun.

Conquest

Some external force takes over from humans and in the process makes us go extinct.  Some possible sources are apes, high mortality infectious disease or hypothetical aliens or even zombies.

Changes to the environment

This includes all kinds of changes to the environment so that it is too hot, too cold, too dry, too acidic, too basic, too salty, too much radiation to sustain life anymore.  There are all kinds of reasons why there could be changes, some related to human activity, and others not.

Classification of the threat

I would propose classifying the threats on a few scales.  The first is the speed of arrival.  Since nothing can move faster than the speed of light, that would be the top of the scale.  Some of the astronomical or physics based existential threats do move at the speed of light.  But many threats are slower such as the sun going out.
The second scale would be the extent of human control there is on the threat.  Some threats such as asteroids and comets are outside our control.  Other threats such as nuclear war definitely are.
A third scale would be how between when it starts and annihilation.  For example, a supernova (not that our sun would ever supernova as it is too small) is over very quickly, but infectious disease might take a decade before it manages to kill everyone.
The kinds of existential threats that are easiest to handle are those that are entirely within our control, arrive slowly (can be seen years ahead) and take time to happen (allows for reaction).  We need to try and work towards shifting these scales for all threats in those directions, if possible.  For example, better detection of asteroids and comets, better control of research into new infectious diseases.  Our best tools to do this are evidence based science.

Executive Order 13821: Rural Broadband Internet

What the Executive Order Says

Executive Order (EO) 13821 is entitled "Streamlining and Expediting Requests to Locate Broadband Facilities in Rural America".  It has 4 sections and was originally issued in January of 2018.

Section 1

This section defines the policy.  It first states that internet access is rural areas is a problem that can be an obstruction to growth, development, and jobs.  The actions being taken are indicated as aiming for regulatory reform and reduction.  The last paragraph indicates that continued implementation of section 6409 of PL 112-96 shall be pursued.

Section 2

This section has 5 different subsections.  The Administrator of General Services is directed to make a review of the common form application and based on the review, due in July of 2018, make changes to the form.  (c) directs various bureaucrats to review and approve requests to mount antennas on Federal Property. (d) and (e) mandate that quarterly reporting is generated on the application process.

Section 3

This section includes definitions for the terms "Federal property managing agencies" and "Federal real property".

Section 4

This section contains general provisions that limit the authority of the Executive Order so as not to appear to override existing laws or create any liabilities for the US Federal Government.

My commentary

So overall, this policy amplifies a policy that was created by a previous congress and simply creates some reporting requirements around it.  Now the GSA has to report the number of applications that were received to mount microwave band antennas on the roofs of federal buildings.  I have not been able to find these reports anywhere.  How exactly this helps get broadband to everyday rural citizens is a bit mysterious to me.  I don't think this EO was terribly effective to change anything.
There are some political ironies in the issue of this EO.  First, the current administration is highlighting and endorsing a policy that was created under the previous administration.  The current administration has been strongly pushing for elimination and relaxation of regulations and why this seems only to be a step sideways instead of in the direction of elimination is unclear to me.
I can see that cell towers and similar communications array facilities are subject to the NIMBY effect where everyone wants these to be built, but just not on, beside or near their particular home or business.  The 112th congress seemed to have it right in mandating that it be allowed to have such communication arrays put on federal land when necessary due to local resistance to siting.  One of the sub-texts here is that siting requests that are being held up on environmental impact or other such concerns are the culprit.  Of course there is only a limited amount of space on federal land and the federal government needs to hold some in reserve for future internal needs.  As such, I suspect that the agencies where there have been proposals have jealously guarded the capacity.
In terms of implementation, I have found little to support that any real action happened after the issue of the EO.  However, this FCC report seems to echo a number of the concerns listed in the EO about the slowness of the process for siting approvals.  This topic has been discussed often and for quite some time.  One opinion piece that I found attributed the slowness of rural broadband expansion to the FCC dragging their feet on any number of regulatory or permitting issues.  This EO was just preceded by a memo to the Secretary of the Interior.  I think that the issue and vacuous nature of the memo and EO point to policy arguments within the administration.  Expanding broadband internet may not be appealing to the free market (well, really it is an oligopoly) and I feel that some government intervention in the market is warranted.

Executive Order 13817: Strategic Minerals

What the Executive Order Says

Executive Order (EO) 13817 is entitled "A Federal Strategy To Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals" and was issued on December 20, 2017.  It has 5 sections.

Section 1

This section lays out the background about issues with certain critical minerals; some of which are present in the USA but are not being mined.  The argument presented states that in some cases, mining companies will not endeavor to mine because of too much regulation which would make the mining operation unprofitable.

Section 2

This section defines what a critical mineral is.  It directs the Secretary of the Interior to publish a list of critical minerals in the Federal Register within 60 days.

Section 3

This section defines actions to be taken.  Subsections (a) and (b) are throwaway comments.  Subsection (c) commits to providing electronic access to all government topographical data.  I would like to be sure that this access is given to all and not just mining companies.  Subsection (d) beats on that same drum of deregulation that the administration has been pounding on since the beginning.

Section 4

This section asks for a report and lists specific items, consistent with section 3, that have to be reported on.  Given the national security implications of some of this, I would not be surprised if there is a need to have a classified version of this report generated.  Why advertise to the world where the weaknesses are?  Subsection (b) indicates that the implementation of this EO is to be done consistently with previous EO's such as 13771, 13783, 13807 and 12866.

Section 5

This section includes the necessary fine print to assure the constitutionality of the EO.

My Commentary

One of the standard lines of argument that is presented by authoritarian leaning figures is that security trumps all.  Anything that needs to be done in the name of securing the nation should be done because it is countering an existential threat and countering the threat is worth sacrificing ideals for since if the threat is successful, we won't be here any longer to practice the ideal we tried to save.  I see this argument in the part where it directs that streamlining and simplifying the permitting process should be done for enhancing access to critical, national security required, minerals.
The lessons of World War II include the reality that starving your opponent of critical resources does give one an edge in the fight.  We acknowledge this in the current foreign policy of sanctions against Iran and North Korea.  Because there is a need to keep secrets, real objective justification of the need for the kind of action that is included in this EO cannot be presented to the average person.  Therefore the administration is operating on trust and based on what they have done in the past, the argument for national security just seems more likely to be pretense than reality.  The questions is whether it is to advance the deconstruction of the administrative state or, rather, as a give-away to political allies in the mining industry.
The lessons of the environmental damage sustained by convenient disposal of industrial wastes and by-products that were learned in the 1970's came at a high cost to the communities affected and it was pretty clear that the people rejected these practices.  Are we going to have to re-learn these lessons over the next 5-10 years?

Presidential Proclamations: Jan / Feb / Mar 2017

In this post we will look at Presidential Proclamations issued by the current administration in January, February and March of 2017.  These are mostly celebratory or commemorative in nature and do not create any new initiatives or set policy.

• Proclamation 9586: World Autism Awareness Day, 2017, issued March 31, 2017.
• Proclamation 9585: National Sexual Assault Awareness and Prevention Month, 2017, issued March 31, 2017.
• Proclamation 9584: National Financial Capability Month, 2017, issued March 31, 2017.
• Proclamation 9583: National Donate Life Month, 2017, issued March 31, 2017.
• Proclamation 9582: National Child Abuse Prevention Month, 2017, issued March 31. 2017
• Proclamation 9581: Cancer Control Month, 2017, issued March 31, 2017 as required by law.
• Proclamation 9580: Greek Independence Day: A National Day of Celebration of Greek and American Democracy, 2017, issued on March 24, 2017.
• Proclamation 9579: National Agriculture Day, 2017, issued on March 21, 2017.
• Proclamation 9578: National Poison Prevention Week, 2017, issued on March 17, 2017 as required by law.
• Proclamation 9577: National Consumer Protection Week, 2017, issued on March 6, 2017.
• Proclamation 9576: Women's History Month, 2017, issued on March 1, 2017.
• Proclamation 9575: Irish-American Heritage Month, 2017, issued on March 1, 2017.
• Proclamation 9574: American Red Cross Month, 2017, issued on March 1, 2017.
• Proclamation 9573: American Heart Month, 2017, issued on February 2, 2017 as required by law.
• Proclamation 9572: National African American History Month, 2017, issued February 1, 2017.
• Proclamation 9571: National School Choice Week, 2017, issued January 25, 2017.
• Proclamation 9570: National Day of Patriotic Devotion, issued January 20, 2017.

Presidential Proclamations: Jerusalem, National Parks

Here are some recent Presidential Proclamations:
Proclamation 9683: Recognizing Jerusalem as the Capital of the State of Israel and Relocating the United States Embassy to Israel to Jerusalem
This proclamation was issued on December 6, 2017.  The proclamation recognizes that the capital of Israel is Jerusalem and commits the US to moving the embassy there.  Within the discussion, it references PL 104-45 for which every President since 1995 has twice a year issued a waiver letter, including the current president.  However, for this last time that it is due to be issued, the current President has instead started the process to move the embassy.
Proclamation 9682: Modifying the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument
This proclamation was issued on December 4, 2017.  This proclamation modifies Proclamation 6920.  This effectively reduces the side of the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument.  It provides a slew of arguments as to why it is appropriate to make the reduction.  Fact-checking these arguments is insufficient, this , as well as the proclamation below, are indicative of the philosophy of the administration: reduce government in every way possible.
Proclamation 9681: Modifying the Bears Ears National Monument
This proclamation was issued on December 4, 2017.  Both this and the next proclamation were the result of the process that was started near the beginning of the administration by way of an Executive order or Presidential memorandum, but I have not been able to find the right one.  The Bears Ears National Monument was created via Proclamation 9558 and is modified in many parts via this current proclamation.  It reduces the National Monument significantly.
Proclamation 9680: World Aids Day, 2017
This proclamation was issued on November 30, 2017.  This proclamation does not commit to any new initiatives or does it make any decisions on issues of the day.
Proclamation 9679: National Impaired Driving Prevention Month, 2017
This proclamation was issued on November 30, 2017.  This proclamation does not commit to any new initiatives nor does it announce any significant policy decisions.  In reading it, I have to point out that to some extent it is conflating impaired driving with driving under the influence of alcohol.  There was an opportunity to press further on the issue of opioid addiction and overdose as I am sure that some amount of traffic fatalities involve drivers who are impaired by opioids.  The proclamation even gives the administration a pat on the back that reducing regulations have spurred technology that will address the problem of drunk driving.  I have to point out that implementation of innovative technology that prevents people from driving drunk will only happen if mandated through laws or regulations.

Presidential Memoranda: Pipelines, TPP

Programming note: The memoranda below are the final memoranda to be reviewed for the current administration.  Following this post, we will begin looking at Presidential proclamations.

Construction of American Pipelines

This memorandum was issued on January 24, 2017 and is addressed to the Secretary of Commerce.  This memorandum asks the Secretary to submit a plant to the President to ensure that pipelines in the US are "produced in the United States" and provides some definition of what that is intended to mean.  A review of news regarding this seems to indicate that not much ultimately happened in the way of rule-making for enforcing the intent expressed so that the domestic steel industry would get a boost.

Withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations and Agreement

This memorandum was issued January 23, 2017 and is addressed to the US Trade Representative.  This was done to keep a campaign promise.  However, the US withdrawal did not kill the TPP, the remaining signatories continued the trade pact although it now covered significantly less traded goods.  The philosophy that the administration follows is that bilateral negotiations are good whereas multi-lateral negotiations are bad for the US on the basis that in multi-lateral negotiations, the US cannot wield as much influence..

The Mexico City Policy

This memorandum was issued January 23, 2017 and is addressed to several cabinet members.  It revokes the Presidential memorandum of January 23, 2009 and instead implements the opposite policy.  This policy regards abortion and funding NGO's and other aid organizations based on whether or not they provide information to women about abortion.

Hiring Freeze

This memorandum was issued on January 23, 2017 and is addressed to the Heads of Executive Departments and Agencies.  While there a large number of caveats listed in the memorandum, it has effectively put a hiring freeze on the executive branch and there are regularly stories in the news how the executive branch departments and agencies are struggling to keep up with the workload required.
There is a long-term plan that was to be created by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget.  The freeze was lifted on April 12, 2017.

Presidential Memoranda: Permitting and the Armed Forces

Rebuilding the U.S. Armed Forces

This Memorandum was issued on January 27, 2017 and is addressed to the Secretary of Defense and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget.  It has 4 sections.

Section 1

This section defines that the policy of the US is to rebuild the US Armed Forces.  To be honest, no one ever presented to me any explanation of why the armed forces needed rebuilding.  I have never thought that the armed forces had faltered.  There could be an argument that we need to have larger armed forces and that their equipment needs to be updated with more technologically advanced equipment, but that is not what is being communicated.

Section 2

This section calls for a readiness review to be performed and that a report to the President is made of its findings.  Additionally, it directs the Secretary of Defense and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to prepare a budget amendment to enlarge the military budget.  Overall, a plan to increase readiness shall be developed and implemented.

Section 3

This section discusses reviews of the National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review and Ballistic Missile Defense Review.  There is not a lot of details in terms of what the direction will be for these reviews.  It is not clear whether that means that the administration did not know what direction they wanted other than just "rebuild", or if there was something sent verbally that did provide the directions but it was sinister and as such could not be written down.  In any case, rebuilding the military was a slogan from the campaign.  Additionally, it should be noted that the President also campaigned on pulling back from having a global presence and bringing the troops back because we had no business being in ... wherever.  And yet this memorandum was a marker to increase military spending: power for the sake of power?  Looking back from now (December 2017), the budget has been such a difficult item that very little on the President's agenda has been funded.  Significantly, there has been questions as to whether the military will be able to spend more in 2018 that it did in 2017 given the current impasse in the Senate.

Section 4

This section includes the usual fine print to assure the constitutionality of the directives issues.  As well, it directs the Secretary of Defense to have it published in the Federal Register.

Streamlining Permitting and Reducing Regulatory Burdens for Domestic Manufacturing

This memorandum was issued on January 24, 2017 and is addressed for the heads of Executive Departments and Agencies.  It has 4 sections

Section 1

This section states the policy that the regulatory state needs to be deconstructed because regulation is adversely impacting the manufacturing sector of the US.

Section 2

This section directs the Secretary of Commerce to solicit comments from the public regarding streamlining the permitting process.

Section 3

This section directs the Secretary of Commerce to submit an action plan to the President on how the permitting process will be streamlined.

Section 4

This section includes the necessary legal fine print to assure its constitutionality.

Construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline

This memorandum was issued on January 24, 2017 and is addressed to the Secretaries of State, the Army and the Interior.  It has 4 sections

Section 1

This section invokes Executive Orders 11423 and 13337 as sources to direct the Secretary of State to use "Presidential permits" as a means to issue the required permits for construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.

Section 2

This section invites TransCanada Keystone Pipeline, L.P to re-submit the application to the Department of State.

Section 3

This section directs the Secretaries of State, the Army and the Interior to cut short all internal reviews and pretty much mandates that the decision, insofar as the Federal Government is concerned, is to issue the permit because the President says so.  Frankly, this is another example where Trump has not respected due process.  Trump's definition of due process seems to be application of influence to the extent necessary so the decision will go in your favor.

Section 4

This section includes the necessary legal fine print to assure that the directives in the memorandum do not overstep the bounds of the executive branch.

Presidential Memoranda: Nuclear Proliferation, VISA's, Pipelines

Delegation of Authority Under the National Defense Authorization Action for Fiscal Year 2017

This memoranda is dated March 19th and is addressed to the Secretary of State.  The memo delegates functions and authorities of the President listed in section 3132 of PL 114-328 to the Secretary of State.  The require has to do with updated plans for the proliferation of nuclear weapons and fissile material and providing these to appropriate congressional committees.

Memorandum of March 6th

The official title of this memorandum is "Implementing Immediate Heightened Screening and Vetting of Applications for Visas and Other Immigration Benefits, Ensuring Enforcement of All Laws for Entry Into the United States, and Increasing Transparency Among Departments and Agencies of the Federal Government and for the American People" which just rolls off the tongue.  It was issued on March 6th, 2017 and is addresses to the Secretaries of State and Homeland Security and the Attorney General.  It is written similar to many Executive Orders and has 5 sections.

Section 1

This section defines policy.  It references an executive order and indicates that this memo is part of the implementation of that executive order.  It additional states that given the risks, additional heightened screening and vetting has to be implemented immediately even though the executive order asks that some studies be done to determine what is reasonable.

Section 2

This section directs the addressees to take any measures that they can that are consistent with current law to increase the level of screening and vetting of applications.

Section 3

This section directs various Executive branch heads to enforce using as strict interpretations as possible laws regarding inadmissibility of migrants.  Also, to the extent allowed by law, this section directors the Secretary of Homeland Security to create and amend rules to be as restrictive as allowed by law through the usual rulemaking process.

Section 4

This section directs that a monthly report be published regarding the number of visas that have been issued from each consular office.  Additionally a quarterly report is to be published detailing the number of adjustments of immigration status that have been made.  Finally, there is a report to be generated discussing the full costs of supporting refugees.

Section 5

This section includes the usual legal fine print necessary to assure that the memorandum does not overstep the constitutional limits imposed on the executive branch.  Finally, it also directs the publishing of the memo in the Federal Register.

Construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline

This memorandum was signed January 24, 2017 and is addressed to the Secretary of the Army.  This was published in the Federal Register twice owing to a correction required in the first published edition.  It has three sections.

Section 1

This section discusses the importance of the Dakota Access Pipeline and the fact that the permitting process is stalled in one area.

Section 2

This section directs that necessary reviews for the Dakota Access pipeline be completed on an expeditious schedule.  Further, it asks that if it can be done, previously reviews be discarded where they are viewed as being too conservative in their approach or are considering potential effects that are not politically correct.

Section 3

This section includes the usual legal fine print necessary to assure that the memorandum does not violate the constitutional limits imposed on the executive branch.

Executive Order 13766: Expediting Environmental Reviews

What this Executive Order says

This Executive Order (EO), No. 13766, is entitled "Expediting Environmental Reviews and Approvals for High Priority Infrastructure Projects" and was issued January 24th, 2017.  It has 4 sections.

Section 1

This section describes the purpose of this EO, in that there are delays to projects due to agency processes and procedures, one of the prime culprits that has been complained about is the EPA.

Section 2

This section indicates that at the request of State Governor, or the head of an executive agency or at their own initiative, the Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality gets to decide what projects are considered "high priority".

Section 3

This section explains who is responsible for keeping review deadlines and who is responsible for following up on these deadlines.

Section 4

This section has the usual legal fine print required to ensure the constitutionality of the EO.

My Commentary

So, someone on some TV program (I think) once had provided a rationale that predictability from the environmental review process would be a good thing and that in business, there are sometimes doubts as to whether or not to make an investment because it cannot be predicted whether (or when) something will get approval to start construction.  We do need industry and I think it is reasonable that for any government service there is predictability of outcomes.  The fear in looking at this EO is that there will be pressure to perform less rigorous or complete of a review in order to meet an arbitrary deadline.
The goals stated in this EO were furthered with more detailed procedural prescriptions in EO 13807 which was issued on August 15th, 2017.