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Saturday, April 18, 2020

Death rates

In the news, we are told that Covid-19 has killed 37,841 people as of 4/18/2020.  While the rate has varied, it seems to be about 2100-2200 people per day.  So let's get some context around that.
The population of the US is approximately 330 million people.  The average life expectancy is 78.5 years.  This means that each year, 4.2 million people die.  That is 11,517 people per day.  So what we are saying seems to be that an extra 20% of death is being handed out?  Not necessarily.  Later, government statistics will come out to determine whether Covid-19 was killing people in addition to normal causes of death, or rather instead of normal causes of death.
Repeating the calculation for Oregon, with the same life expectancy and a population of 4.2 million, normally 147 people die each day.  Currently, the number of deaths from Covid-19 seems to be about 4 or 5 people per day.  This is a much lower rate in comparison to the national picture.  Here one might argue that it is much more likely that people are being killed by Covid-19 rather than some other causes such as traffic and gun accidents because of social distancing measures.  In other words, probably Covid-19 is not adding to the death toll, people are dying at the same rate as before but for different reasons.  Unfortunately, data compilation, validation and publishing take time, so resources such as CDC's Wonder are not going to answer just what kind of effect Covid-19 has had on the country until later.
Just also want to note that I have way simplified the subject.  There are regional and seasonal variations.  The short term effect of social distancing may be very hard to determine vs. the effect of the Covid-19 infection rate.  Assumptions of paribus ceteris may be invalid for many reasons.  Also, it is not clear that we have reached the peak of the mortality curve for the US or the deaths from Covid-19 could possibly remain level for some weeks.  In the case of a doubling of the daily death rate or a sustained high level, then clearly the virus is adding marginally to the death rate and the life expectancy will go down when they calculate the statistics.  For example, if we assume that 2200 daily deaths are indeed on top of the normal national death rate, then this would reduce the life expectancy to 65.9 years which is a pretty significant reduction.
Again, I want to stress that we won't be able to figure out the actual effects until all the data has been gathered and analyzed but it sure is fun to speculate about it.

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